This could be a very interesting finish.
BIG X - They could have 3-5 teams pretty easily. PSU, IU, OSU could all end with one loss. UO likely goes undefeated. Illinois likely ends with 2 losses to good teams. This gets 5 teams in I think potentially.
OSU and Illinois are the two most in danger of missing it. OSU could be easily take 3 losses (though god I hope they drubbed PSU). Two seems likely. Illinois lost late and not well. They need help to climb back up.
ACC - Hard to imagine Miami not winning out. SMU and Clemson play Pitt. Best Pitt and I think both don’t lose another game. Pitt beats them and Pitt is in. They are already ranked way too low and with wins over both or even one they will get a good bump ( ND Joke of a ranking is hurting a lot of teams ). This is a 2-3 team league this year.
SEC - TXAM, Tenn, UGA, LSU, Bama all have the rankings (Tenn, Bama both are over ranked but that’s the SEC) and the schedule left to make it. Too many of them play each other and even with the gross overrating annually that helps strength of schedule it won’t be enough. This is the league that could also go 3-5 teams. I’m thinking low end.
B12 - KSU, BYU, ISU, CU all have a shot. BYU should win out. ISU only has KSU left that is ranked but could stumble. KSU has ISU and I don’t expect them to stumble. CU has the easiest schedule left arguably and could win out but questions remain about the OL against decent defensive teams. This just feels like a one bid league given the other leagues and how many they get. If BYU and ISU play for it all and it isn’t lopsided I think 2 get in. There is a chance that if KSU beats BYU they get in. CU has to win it all to get in.
Here is who I see today based on remaining schedule:
BIG X - IU, UO, PSU, OSU
Illinois just misses because of Notre Dame and the OTHER G5 who take spots they don’t deserve.
SEC - UT,TxAM, UGA
I could swap Bama, LSU or Tenn for any of them but I think too much carnage happens (including spoilers knocking guys off like South Carolina may do) for it to be 4. Again ND steals a spot they don’t deserve here.
ACC - Miami, Clemson.
SMU just misses thanks to the two G5 schedules who get auto bids. Pitt loses to. Clemson and SMU but has a great season
B12 - BYU
Something feels like BYU wins out. Weird to me but they seem to be the team of Destiny. Insert KSU, ISU or CU here and I wouldn’t be shocked in 2024.
G5
ND
After one more year of this everyone will want G5 out and ND to have some sort of league. When the move to a reorganization comes both happen and we go to 16 teams is my guess.
The teams that don’t make the CFP will play third stringers in bowl games as starters either transfer, go NIL or sit. The playoff is now all that matters and this whole bowl system is going to get reworked as well.
Curios how others see it ??
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