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The Athletic's view of the future

The latest prediction from the Athletic. It is behind a pay wall so will not paste the whole article:

The 5 options listed with some of the article:

1. A Big Three
Prepare to say bye-bye to the phrase “Power 5.” With the Big Ten and SEC making money hand over fist, the top of Division I is already set for clearer stratification by the end of this decade. If nothing significant in the landscape changes and no major new revenue streams pop up, the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 will continue to battle for No. 3 billing. Whoever emerges from that battle could become the landing spot for every attractive school the SEC and Big Ten pass on. (My note here, I believe this will be the outcome. I disagree it will be one of these conferences itself, but a mixture of the remaining 3).

2. Notre Dame remains independent
Last week The Athletic’s Pete Sampson explored the present and future of Notre Dame’s independence, including the influential role played by the school’s long-running rights deal with NBC (currently on a contract that lasts through 2025). The story cited two sports media consultants who believe that the Irish could land a new deal with NBC that would pay them around $60 million per year once their current contract runs out. New athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who will replace longtime AD Jack Swarbrick early next year, was previously the chairman of NBC Sports. Meanwhile, NBC has joined Fox and CBS on the Big Ten’s new seven-year, $7 billion rights agreement running through 2030; those schools are expected to bring in more than $70 million per year in media rights revenue alone.

3. The Big Ten and SEC become the AFC and NFC
The two richest leagues are already about to become 16-team conferences, now that each has picked off two big brands for 2024. As Florida State athletic director Michael Alford put it to his board of trustees earlier this year, there’s great fear among those in the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 about falling too far behind. “We cannot be $30 million behind every year compared to our peers,” Alford said in February. ( My thoughts, I do not think the networks and streaming services will allow this. Two 20 school conferences only provides up to 20 games once conference play starts. Yes the lower level of college football football will play games, but as we know the American sporting public only real watch what they consider is the top level of a sport is)

4. The appointment of a College Football Czar
Many prominent college football coaches have called for a “czar” who would have the ability to make and change rules unilaterally and run the top level of college football the way the pro leagues operate. It’s a job NCAA leadership is clearly not fulfilling at present. (my thoughts good luck getting conference commishes to do this)

5. FBS-1A and FBS-1B, based on employment status
Almost everyone who works in college sports agrees that the biggest future-facing question is that of athlete compensation. Will players become employees, and, if so, how exactly will that come about? It’s safe to presume that one of several legal dominoes will fall allowing athletes to be paid directly by schools and/or leagues within the next decade. And not every school will want to do that. Fewer still will be able to afford to do it.

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OT: list of on air "talent" let go by ESPN today

Of note for College football:

David Pollack – A longtime member of one of ESPN’s signature shows, College GameDay, Pollack was at ESPN since 2009. In addition to College GameDay, which he joined in 2011, Pollack was a major figure in ESPN’s college football coverage in the broadcast booth and studio.

Todd McShay – McShay rose to prominence as a foil and partner for Mel Kiper in ESPN’s ever-expanding NFL Draft coverage while also serving as a college football sideline reporter. McShay came to ESPN in 2006 as part of Scouts Inc. where he served as director of college football scouting.

Recruiting

As we get closer to recruiting picking up again I went and looked at where things stand. 60 in overall ranking and more importantly 31 in average per recruit. Also a very solid P5 offer list.

My wonder is why do we only have 9 commits? While others have continued to sign quality prospects and have class sizes of 18-26 we have been very slow to bring HS players on board.

To be successful long term these next two classes will need somewhere around 25 guys each. I am somewhat concerned that we have been far too focused on the TP to the detriment of recruiting.

Anyone else have any thoughts on why we might be so far behind many in building a solid HS class? It’s going to be hard at this point to get the numbers we need and keep the quality at the level we need. There will be defections we get but we might also lose some as well

Buffs NewsStand - Jul 14

OL Jeremiah McCrimmon commits to CU

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OL Jeremiah McCrimmon received a scholarship offer after he impressed Buffs' coaching staff during the post-grad camp on May 30. McCrimmon graduated from Middle Creek High School in Apex, North Carolina before joining Mississippi State as a PWO in the fall of 2021. He took a redshirt his freshman year then transferred to Coahoma Community College in 2022.

More on McCrimmon ⬇️

Highlights:
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Scenarios - List them

Now that the next big ball has dropped, it's pretty clear to me where this thing is headed. It's headed for the haves vs. the have nots. Everyone is now scrambling for their place at the table. Big 10 and SEC are the big seats and the only conferences that will get major TV deals. The Big 10 blew up the Pac 12's chances in order to enhance their own. I have a hard time though believing both the SEC and Big 10 are done at 10. The rest are willing to do anything to get their seats at the table. Here we go:

Scenario 1 (Notre Dame causes next big domino):
Notre Dame - increasing pressure to join a league now. NBC deal will look paltry real soon. Staying independent could finally affect their bottom line. Chances of a college football playoff spot are greatly dwindling. The 2 power brokers will determine which teams go and they will almost surely be all teams from their leagues and maybe 1 other outsider amongst the others.

Notre Dame becomes full fledge member of the Big 10
This puts the Big 10 at 17 which then decides that it must expand to 20.
Big 10 adds Oregon, Washington, and Stanford to complete their sweep of the college football world.

SEC must respond - SEC decides they MUST get to 20 to combat the Big 10 and adds 4 from the ACC: Miami, FSU, Clemson, and Virginia.

Pac 12 leftovers including ASU, UA, CU, and Utah head to the Big 12 which becomes the Big 16. WSU, Cal, and Oregon St. join the MWC in a stunning reversal of fortunes.

The ACC, licking their wounds, adds the best from the East and Mid West out of the other conferences to pull to 16 teams from the ashes of the 10 leftovers.

Scenario 2 (Notre Dame stays put/Big 10 goes 4-Pac):
Notre Dame decides that it is still more important than everyone else and stays put.
Big 10, still nervous about SEC moves, decides to 4 PAC.
Big 10 adds: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal (at the insistence of Stanford)

SEC is in limbo now. Big 10 got a lot better, but did not get Notre Dame. They could add the ACC 4, or just stay put and wait things out. Lots of scattered opinions. Would cost upward of 175 million to grab the ACC 4 and that might be too big of a bill to add so they consider the ACC 4, but only if they pay their own exit fees.

ACC 4 now has a decision to make. Throw away $175 million to get into the SEC or stay put and put more pressure on Notre Dame to become a full member. Notre Dame is still the card to play. They have scheduling deals with Notre Dame in place and they are full members in other sports. They are just 1 Notre Dame grab away from joining the super conferences in prestige (or nearly in that same light).

The Pac 12 is in a horrible position. 8 teams left and not many answers. Cannot take a bunch of MWC teams. The only 4 decent teams that were good takes were already brought in by the Big 12. SDSU and Fresno don't move the needle. UNLV has some cash and location, but they are not an athletic department worth anything. USU, Air Force, CSU? Yeah, no. Boise State? The only name team in the west really and the conference would have to drop all it has historically made itself out to be to add Boise. Yuck!

Pac 12, instead, goes begging to the Big 12 for a life line. Become the Big 20. Hmmm, where have we heard that? Remember when the Big 12 needed a life raft and begged the Pac 12 to become the Pac 20? Remember how we thumbed our noses up at the prospect? My how quickly things change!

Big 12 though isn't in the same position the Pac 12 was at the time, so they either go for the Big 20 or pick and choose Pac 12 schools to add since all of them are secretly speaking to the Big 12 on the downlow. Pac 12 dies by 2025. CU ends up back in the Big 12 as either the full Big 20 or a Big 16 expansion.

Scenario 3 (Big 10 and SEC are done at 16):

In this scenario, Notre Dame yawns and doesn't move anywhere.
Pac 12 is now the Pac 10 again, but a nervous Pac 10 as all the teams are secretly trying to join other conferences. After the initial shock though, they decide it is better to stay together and fight this thing out (for now). Trust amongst members is low though so the league knows it needs to expand to get 'some' excitement going.

Pac 12 bites the bullet and adds 2 members from the MWC.
Pac 12 adds SDSU and UNLV to the league. The presidents can't stomach taking Boise and nobody wants CSU.

League goes back to 12 teams and has a little stability for the time being. The next TV deal will suck but getting Vegas market and locking up San Diego has some consolation.


What scenarios do you guys see? List your scenarios please. Very interested in seeing what you guys have and what you have heard.
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