http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/38/colorado-buffaloes
So ESPN has the Buffs only winning 3 games - just over 50% odds to beat both CSU and WSU and beating Fresno pretty handily. Schedule is ranked as the 7th toughest in the nation for 2020.
Is the schedule really that tough? I get that TA&M will be very tough as a road game but the teams CY play:
3 new coaches - WSU, WA, and CSU. WSU with the Pirate has been a problem. Borhgi is really good but new coach, likely new schemes, new QB. They pick us to win so no argument I guess. Buffs did beat WA last year - it was a home game but FPI essentially give the Buffs no chance. We are barely given odds to beat CSU? Again new coach, new schemes etc with CU have significant talent advantage that has shown up for years on the field.
3 PAC 12 Hot Seat Coaches - things have not been going well at UCLA, AZ, and USC. I am not arguing we'll beat all of them - but to not beat any of them? Tate is gone, Sumlin has lost players and coaches. Between UCLA and AZ we win at one - the Buffs have enough talent to get hat done. USC is over rated but I get it - Slovis is really good and their OC is good.
The rest ASU - we have beaten Herm consistently - their QB will be better though they lose a good RB. Stanford is over rated - they are losing talent, the game is away for CU so that is tougher still this is a winnable game. UT - I concede UT is very well coached and is reloading in areas where they lose players and has talent - very likely a loss.
SO why is CU being looked at here as being essentially horrible? We are losing a multi-year starting QB to the NFL, losing a very athletic LB (Taylor) to the NFL, losing Shenault, and then a couple of starting OL and another 1-2 starting defensive players. So on the surface that is significant though lets look closer:
QB - always a big hole to fill. We do lack depth. I would say that Montez's actual performance was less than his potential and if (and I think he will be) he's drafted its on his potential. We need a good college QB to manage the game and get the ball to a quality WR corps to make plays. If Lytle is decent this huge mark against the Buffs gets removed. Its a legit concern at the most important position - other PAC 12 teams will have new QB's and don't have the level of pessimism from analysts the Buffs do. We lack depth but both scholly QB's were highly recruited out of HS - maybe not blue chips but quality.
Shenault and WR - we lose a potential 1st round draft pick in Shenault. In truth, while he had some awesome plays last year but he was hurt for most of the year and his production was not all world in 2019. He likely made sure the Buffs won at least one additional game than they would have without him. Tony Brown was is a quality blue chip WR, he can be replaced by the talent on the roster. Buffs return the other two starters. The WR corps will be a strength on offense.
Defense - losing Taylor will hurt - though I think the first part of last season he was still figuring allot out. We lose Tchangnam, Abrams, and Onu. All good players that will be missed but not irreplaceable players. DB is after QB the biggest depth concern - still we have Trujillo and Lucket who should take a big step forward, if Miller is healthy (big if) then he'll likely start, transfer from Miami as depth, then quality talent coming in. Overall I'd say DB is in better shape than last year. The real problem last year on D was lack of depth on the DL - when Johnson and Sami went down CU lost games. 2020 the depth on the DL is a whole different story - Buffs don't lost any starters, everyone is more experienced and there is depth for a quality rotation. I expect the D to be better this year and with the talent up front our D could dominate - that is worth more than a couple of skill positions on the offense by far. D also travels.
On O my biggest concern is Chev and play calling. I think RB will be better, TE the same - maybe better, talent on the OL is similar - question is on coaching there, QB is ?, WR likely a step back but not too much - plenty of talent.
Overall I think this team can win 5-6 this year. Lots of continuity on D, real experience, depth, and talent on the DL. The D will win 1-2 games for this team. O is a concern but a strong run game, decent OL, and still plenty of talent at WR - just need a QB to be decent and smart with the ball. Can Chev improve at play calling? Hopefully he gets help from HCKD he didn't get from HCMM. The competition; I really think a number of the teams on the schedule re over rated and there are many winnable games AZ, ASU, CSU, Fresno, Stanford, WSU, UCLA possibly even WA and way outside chance at USC. UT, OR, and A&M are pretty much out of reach. 7 games I'd say to win 4-5 and 2 more where there is a chance. If we win just one PAC 12 game I'll be shocked. Dorrell may not have *ucker's swag and recruiting focus but he can win 5-6 games even with this schedule. Rant over!
So ESPN has the Buffs only winning 3 games - just over 50% odds to beat both CSU and WSU and beating Fresno pretty handily. Schedule is ranked as the 7th toughest in the nation for 2020.
Is the schedule really that tough? I get that TA&M will be very tough as a road game but the teams CY play:
3 new coaches - WSU, WA, and CSU. WSU with the Pirate has been a problem. Borhgi is really good but new coach, likely new schemes, new QB. They pick us to win so no argument I guess. Buffs did beat WA last year - it was a home game but FPI essentially give the Buffs no chance. We are barely given odds to beat CSU? Again new coach, new schemes etc with CU have significant talent advantage that has shown up for years on the field.
3 PAC 12 Hot Seat Coaches - things have not been going well at UCLA, AZ, and USC. I am not arguing we'll beat all of them - but to not beat any of them? Tate is gone, Sumlin has lost players and coaches. Between UCLA and AZ we win at one - the Buffs have enough talent to get hat done. USC is over rated but I get it - Slovis is really good and their OC is good.
The rest ASU - we have beaten Herm consistently - their QB will be better though they lose a good RB. Stanford is over rated - they are losing talent, the game is away for CU so that is tougher still this is a winnable game. UT - I concede UT is very well coached and is reloading in areas where they lose players and has talent - very likely a loss.
SO why is CU being looked at here as being essentially horrible? We are losing a multi-year starting QB to the NFL, losing a very athletic LB (Taylor) to the NFL, losing Shenault, and then a couple of starting OL and another 1-2 starting defensive players. So on the surface that is significant though lets look closer:
QB - always a big hole to fill. We do lack depth. I would say that Montez's actual performance was less than his potential and if (and I think he will be) he's drafted its on his potential. We need a good college QB to manage the game and get the ball to a quality WR corps to make plays. If Lytle is decent this huge mark against the Buffs gets removed. Its a legit concern at the most important position - other PAC 12 teams will have new QB's and don't have the level of pessimism from analysts the Buffs do. We lack depth but both scholly QB's were highly recruited out of HS - maybe not blue chips but quality.
Shenault and WR - we lose a potential 1st round draft pick in Shenault. In truth, while he had some awesome plays last year but he was hurt for most of the year and his production was not all world in 2019. He likely made sure the Buffs won at least one additional game than they would have without him. Tony Brown was is a quality blue chip WR, he can be replaced by the talent on the roster. Buffs return the other two starters. The WR corps will be a strength on offense.
Defense - losing Taylor will hurt - though I think the first part of last season he was still figuring allot out. We lose Tchangnam, Abrams, and Onu. All good players that will be missed but not irreplaceable players. DB is after QB the biggest depth concern - still we have Trujillo and Lucket who should take a big step forward, if Miller is healthy (big if) then he'll likely start, transfer from Miami as depth, then quality talent coming in. Overall I'd say DB is in better shape than last year. The real problem last year on D was lack of depth on the DL - when Johnson and Sami went down CU lost games. 2020 the depth on the DL is a whole different story - Buffs don't lost any starters, everyone is more experienced and there is depth for a quality rotation. I expect the D to be better this year and with the talent up front our D could dominate - that is worth more than a couple of skill positions on the offense by far. D also travels.
On O my biggest concern is Chev and play calling. I think RB will be better, TE the same - maybe better, talent on the OL is similar - question is on coaching there, QB is ?, WR likely a step back but not too much - plenty of talent.
Overall I think this team can win 5-6 this year. Lots of continuity on D, real experience, depth, and talent on the DL. The D will win 1-2 games for this team. O is a concern but a strong run game, decent OL, and still plenty of talent at WR - just need a QB to be decent and smart with the ball. Can Chev improve at play calling? Hopefully he gets help from HCKD he didn't get from HCMM. The competition; I really think a number of the teams on the schedule re over rated and there are many winnable games AZ, ASU, CSU, Fresno, Stanford, WSU, UCLA possibly even WA and way outside chance at USC. UT, OR, and A&M are pretty much out of reach. 7 games I'd say to win 4-5 and 2 more where there is a chance. If we win just one PAC 12 game I'll be shocked. Dorrell may not have *ucker's swag and recruiting focus but he can win 5-6 games even with this schedule. Rant over!
