Pritchard - 18.5 ppg; 4.3 rpg; 6.2 apg; 1.8 spg; 51% 2fg; 40% 3fg;
Wright - 12.8 ppg; 5.2 rpg; 4.2 apg; 1.3 spg; 42% 2fg; 32% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Duarte - 12.3 ppg; 5 rpg; 1.7 apg; 1 spg; 45% 2fg; 38% 3fg;
Schwartz - 11.4 ppg; 3.8 rpg; 1.6 apg; 0.4 spg; 43% 2fg; 48% 3fg;
advantage: CU
Mathis - 10.8 ppg; 2.6 rpg; 1.1 apg; 0.8 spg; 50% 2fg; 50% 3fg;
Gatling - 6.6 ppg; 1.5 rpg; 0.9 apg; 0.5 spg; 35% 2fg; 30% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Walker - 6 ppg; 2.9 rpg; 0.3 apg 0.8 bpg; 48% 2fg; 39% 3fg;
Bey - 12.5 ppg; 9.4 rpg; 1.8 apg; 1.9 apg; 1.4 bpg; 51% 2fg; 46% 3fg;
advantage: CU
Okoro - 5.4 ppg; 6.8 rpg; 0.4 apg; 0.8 bpg; 58% 2fg;
Battey - 9.8 ppg; 7.1 rpg; 1.0 apg; 0.8 spg; 55% 2fg;
advantage: CU
Richardson - 10.3 ppg; 3.5 rpg; 2.6 apg; 1.4 spg; 50% 2fg; 58% 3fg;
Kountz - 4.6 ppg; 1 rpg; 1.1 apg; 0.7 spg; 34% 2fg; 20% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Juiston* (injured) - 8.8 ppg; 6.5 rpg; 2.5 apg; 1 spg; 43% 2fg;
Dante** (healthy now) - 8 ppg; 2.3 rpg; 0.3 apg; 1.7 spg; 59% 2fg;
Siewert - 7.7 ppg; 4.7 rpg; 0.5 apg; 0.6 spg; 43% 2fg; 43% 3fg;
Walton - 0.9 ppg; 1.3 rpg; 0.8 apg; 0.3 spg; 22% 2fg;
advantage: Push
Lawson - 4.8 ppg; 4.1 rpg; 1.0 apg; 0.7 spg; 56% 2fg;
Daniels - 3.2 ppg; 1.1 rpg; 0.8 apg; 0.1 spg; 33% 2fg; 36% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Patterson - 5.4 ppg; 1.4 rpg; 0.3 apg; 0.3 spg; 53% 2fg; 38% 3fg;
Parquet - 1.9 ppg; 0.8 rpg; 0.5 apg; 0.3 spg; 38% 2fg; 33% 3fg;
advantage: CU
There are some interesting match ups here. Obviously Peyton vs. Wright is the big one everyone will watch. Two player of the year candidates going head to head. Safe to say Peyton has had the much better season of the two but Wright has heated up lately and is playing about as well as Pritchard right now.
Best match up honestly might be Chris Duarte vs. D'Shawn Schwartz. This one could be epic. Duarte is the best 3 point shooter in the conference IMO. He can light you up something nasty when he's hot. He can hit double digit 3's on you if you aren't guarding him tight. He can also take it to the rack and throw it down strong. He's super quick and a very impressive offensive player all around. He also rebounds and gets after it at times defensively. He can also go cold and when he does, Oregon's offense struggles and Pritchard has to take over the show. Scwhartz might have the better all around offensive game though. He can break down a defense better and will hit the high percentage 3 point shot. This is the one my eyes will be on because if Schwartz beats Duarte head to head, there's a good chance CU wins.
Our big advantage is Bey on Walker. CJ Walker is a good player in transition but just a good screen guy offensively otherwise. He can pick and pop a little, but does not have a good back to the basket game. He will have his hands full trying to guard Bey and keep him off the offensive glass so I expect the double from Pritchard and Duarte to come quick and leave open McKinley and Schwartz to shoot.
Battey vs. Okoro is a lot better match up than we think. Both are big dudes. Okoro is very athletic. Battey will need to use his size to push him out and do well to slide his feet and not pick up fouls. This will be pure power vs. power and athleticism. I'm not sure how much Oregon is going to like this match up and we'll see how quickly they Dante who is now healthy and a big improvement for their front court.
Our bad match up is obviously Gatling vs. Mathis. Mathis is a stud. Gatling is not. Gatling needs to have one of those UCLA type games to really turn the tide on that match up. Shane needs to really hit his 3's because Mathis can light it up in a hurry. He's not as good as Duarte, but he's more efficient and will burn you bad with his outside shot. If Shane is off, this will be where Oregon picks up most of their (+/-) points. This is the one to watch if CU is struggling.
From the bench, Kountz vs. Richardson looks like a mismatch and maybe it is, but this is one Daylen could do well in. Daylen is more athletic than Richardson and Daylen plays good defense. He just needs to follow the screens tightly (over the screens, not under them) and not fall for the head fake. If he does that, he will be fine because Richardson won't be able to keep up with Daylen when he's driving to the hoop. This is a strength vs. weakness match up where 1 guy is a great 3 point shooter and the other is a great lane driver.
Dante is healthy now for Oregon and has played the last 3 games and is one of their main guys off the bench now. He's big at nearly 7 foot and might be a better match up defensively for Walton after Dallas finally shook off the rust. It will be interesting to see what Tad does here because Lucas might not be a great defensive match for this one. Lucas though on offense could pull him away from the basket giving us lanes for our guards to drive which would be nice. Dante is just a freshman though so maybe we can work this kid a little. He hasn't faced anyone as good as CU's front court. Very talented kid though.
With Juiston out, Oregon loses a ton of defense and rebounding from the bench. They also lose a good inside out player who can run the court with the best of them. This is a good deal for CU IMO.
I put Daniels vs. Lawson though I don't know if CU plays that match up much. Lawson will play inside much more than Daniels but they are similar sized. CU probably puts Siewert on Lawson to begin with. It depends on how big Oregon wants to go here against CU. Bey could also draw Lawson if they go big on us. For bench head to head purposes though, I put Daniels here. Advantage obviously Oregon on this one, but again, we'll see how CU pairs these match ups up.
Last one I have is freshman Patterson who is more of a wing vs. Parquet. I actually like this match up because Patterson is almost solely an offensive player and we can put Parquet on him and shut him down most of the game. This is a good game for Parquet to actually get a few more minutes with a match up like this. It depends on how much they want to play Patterson. They may not go here much against an opponent like CU unless they have foul trouble. With Dante back, they don't need to use Patterson off the bench as he's the 9th sub.
What do you guys think? On paper, a variable push. I see equal advantages for both teams. Both play completely different styles so it's hard to really judge them. UO has obviously played a tougher schedule and played good teams better than CU has and has blown out teams better than CU has. Oregon also has some serious holes in their line up which is still pretty young outside of their big 3.
Wright - 12.8 ppg; 5.2 rpg; 4.2 apg; 1.3 spg; 42% 2fg; 32% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Duarte - 12.3 ppg; 5 rpg; 1.7 apg; 1 spg; 45% 2fg; 38% 3fg;
Schwartz - 11.4 ppg; 3.8 rpg; 1.6 apg; 0.4 spg; 43% 2fg; 48% 3fg;
advantage: CU
Mathis - 10.8 ppg; 2.6 rpg; 1.1 apg; 0.8 spg; 50% 2fg; 50% 3fg;
Gatling - 6.6 ppg; 1.5 rpg; 0.9 apg; 0.5 spg; 35% 2fg; 30% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Walker - 6 ppg; 2.9 rpg; 0.3 apg 0.8 bpg; 48% 2fg; 39% 3fg;
Bey - 12.5 ppg; 9.4 rpg; 1.8 apg; 1.9 apg; 1.4 bpg; 51% 2fg; 46% 3fg;
advantage: CU
Okoro - 5.4 ppg; 6.8 rpg; 0.4 apg; 0.8 bpg; 58% 2fg;
Battey - 9.8 ppg; 7.1 rpg; 1.0 apg; 0.8 spg; 55% 2fg;
advantage: CU
Richardson - 10.3 ppg; 3.5 rpg; 2.6 apg; 1.4 spg; 50% 2fg; 58% 3fg;
Kountz - 4.6 ppg; 1 rpg; 1.1 apg; 0.7 spg; 34% 2fg; 20% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Juiston* (injured) - 8.8 ppg; 6.5 rpg; 2.5 apg; 1 spg; 43% 2fg;
Dante** (healthy now) - 8 ppg; 2.3 rpg; 0.3 apg; 1.7 spg; 59% 2fg;
Siewert - 7.7 ppg; 4.7 rpg; 0.5 apg; 0.6 spg; 43% 2fg; 43% 3fg;
Walton - 0.9 ppg; 1.3 rpg; 0.8 apg; 0.3 spg; 22% 2fg;
advantage: Push
Lawson - 4.8 ppg; 4.1 rpg; 1.0 apg; 0.7 spg; 56% 2fg;
Daniels - 3.2 ppg; 1.1 rpg; 0.8 apg; 0.1 spg; 33% 2fg; 36% 3fg;
advantage: UO
Patterson - 5.4 ppg; 1.4 rpg; 0.3 apg; 0.3 spg; 53% 2fg; 38% 3fg;
Parquet - 1.9 ppg; 0.8 rpg; 0.5 apg; 0.3 spg; 38% 2fg; 33% 3fg;
advantage: CU
There are some interesting match ups here. Obviously Peyton vs. Wright is the big one everyone will watch. Two player of the year candidates going head to head. Safe to say Peyton has had the much better season of the two but Wright has heated up lately and is playing about as well as Pritchard right now.
Best match up honestly might be Chris Duarte vs. D'Shawn Schwartz. This one could be epic. Duarte is the best 3 point shooter in the conference IMO. He can light you up something nasty when he's hot. He can hit double digit 3's on you if you aren't guarding him tight. He can also take it to the rack and throw it down strong. He's super quick and a very impressive offensive player all around. He also rebounds and gets after it at times defensively. He can also go cold and when he does, Oregon's offense struggles and Pritchard has to take over the show. Scwhartz might have the better all around offensive game though. He can break down a defense better and will hit the high percentage 3 point shot. This is the one my eyes will be on because if Schwartz beats Duarte head to head, there's a good chance CU wins.
Our big advantage is Bey on Walker. CJ Walker is a good player in transition but just a good screen guy offensively otherwise. He can pick and pop a little, but does not have a good back to the basket game. He will have his hands full trying to guard Bey and keep him off the offensive glass so I expect the double from Pritchard and Duarte to come quick and leave open McKinley and Schwartz to shoot.
Battey vs. Okoro is a lot better match up than we think. Both are big dudes. Okoro is very athletic. Battey will need to use his size to push him out and do well to slide his feet and not pick up fouls. This will be pure power vs. power and athleticism. I'm not sure how much Oregon is going to like this match up and we'll see how quickly they Dante who is now healthy and a big improvement for their front court.
Our bad match up is obviously Gatling vs. Mathis. Mathis is a stud. Gatling is not. Gatling needs to have one of those UCLA type games to really turn the tide on that match up. Shane needs to really hit his 3's because Mathis can light it up in a hurry. He's not as good as Duarte, but he's more efficient and will burn you bad with his outside shot. If Shane is off, this will be where Oregon picks up most of their (+/-) points. This is the one to watch if CU is struggling.
From the bench, Kountz vs. Richardson looks like a mismatch and maybe it is, but this is one Daylen could do well in. Daylen is more athletic than Richardson and Daylen plays good defense. He just needs to follow the screens tightly (over the screens, not under them) and not fall for the head fake. If he does that, he will be fine because Richardson won't be able to keep up with Daylen when he's driving to the hoop. This is a strength vs. weakness match up where 1 guy is a great 3 point shooter and the other is a great lane driver.
Dante is healthy now for Oregon and has played the last 3 games and is one of their main guys off the bench now. He's big at nearly 7 foot and might be a better match up defensively for Walton after Dallas finally shook off the rust. It will be interesting to see what Tad does here because Lucas might not be a great defensive match for this one. Lucas though on offense could pull him away from the basket giving us lanes for our guards to drive which would be nice. Dante is just a freshman though so maybe we can work this kid a little. He hasn't faced anyone as good as CU's front court. Very talented kid though.
With Juiston out, Oregon loses a ton of defense and rebounding from the bench. They also lose a good inside out player who can run the court with the best of them. This is a good deal for CU IMO.
I put Daniels vs. Lawson though I don't know if CU plays that match up much. Lawson will play inside much more than Daniels but they are similar sized. CU probably puts Siewert on Lawson to begin with. It depends on how big Oregon wants to go here against CU. Bey could also draw Lawson if they go big on us. For bench head to head purposes though, I put Daniels here. Advantage obviously Oregon on this one, but again, we'll see how CU pairs these match ups up.
Last one I have is freshman Patterson who is more of a wing vs. Parquet. I actually like this match up because Patterson is almost solely an offensive player and we can put Parquet on him and shut him down most of the game. This is a good game for Parquet to actually get a few more minutes with a match up like this. It depends on how much they want to play Patterson. They may not go here much against an opponent like CU unless they have foul trouble. With Dante back, they don't need to use Patterson off the bench as he's the 9th sub.
What do you guys think? On paper, a variable push. I see equal advantages for both teams. Both play completely different styles so it's hard to really judge them. UO has obviously played a tougher schedule and played good teams better than CU has and has blown out teams better than CU has. Oregon also has some serious holes in their line up which is still pretty young outside of their big 3.
