Now that the next big ball has dropped, it's pretty clear to me where this thing is headed. It's headed for the haves vs. the have nots. Everyone is now scrambling for their place at the table. Big 10 and SEC are the big seats and the only conferences that will get major TV deals. The Big 10 blew up the Pac 12's chances in order to enhance their own. I have a hard time though believing both the SEC and Big 10 are done at 10. The rest are willing to do anything to get their seats at the table. Here we go:
Scenario 1 (Notre Dame causes next big domino):
Notre Dame - increasing pressure to join a league now. NBC deal will look paltry real soon. Staying independent could finally affect their bottom line. Chances of a college football playoff spot are greatly dwindling. The 2 power brokers will determine which teams go and they will almost surely be all teams from their leagues and maybe 1 other outsider amongst the others.
Notre Dame becomes full fledge member of the Big 10
This puts the Big 10 at 17 which then decides that it must expand to 20.
Big 10 adds Oregon, Washington, and Stanford to complete their sweep of the college football world.
SEC must respond - SEC decides they MUST get to 20 to combat the Big 10 and adds 4 from the ACC: Miami, FSU, Clemson, and Virginia.
Pac 12 leftovers including ASU, UA, CU, and Utah head to the Big 12 which becomes the Big 16. WSU, Cal, and Oregon St. join the MWC in a stunning reversal of fortunes.
The ACC, licking their wounds, adds the best from the East and Mid West out of the other conferences to pull to 16 teams from the ashes of the 10 leftovers.
Scenario 2 (Notre Dame stays put/Big 10 goes 4-Pac):
Notre Dame decides that it is still more important than everyone else and stays put.
Big 10, still nervous about SEC moves, decides to 4 PAC.
Big 10 adds: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal (at the insistence of Stanford)
SEC is in limbo now. Big 10 got a lot better, but did not get Notre Dame. They could add the ACC 4, or just stay put and wait things out. Lots of scattered opinions. Would cost upward of 175 million to grab the ACC 4 and that might be too big of a bill to add so they consider the ACC 4, but only if they pay their own exit fees.
ACC 4 now has a decision to make. Throw away $175 million to get into the SEC or stay put and put more pressure on Notre Dame to become a full member. Notre Dame is still the card to play. They have scheduling deals with Notre Dame in place and they are full members in other sports. They are just 1 Notre Dame grab away from joining the super conferences in prestige (or nearly in that same light).
The Pac 12 is in a horrible position. 8 teams left and not many answers. Cannot take a bunch of MWC teams. The only 4 decent teams that were good takes were already brought in by the Big 12. SDSU and Fresno don't move the needle. UNLV has some cash and location, but they are not an athletic department worth anything. USU, Air Force, CSU? Yeah, no. Boise State? The only name team in the west really and the conference would have to drop all it has historically made itself out to be to add Boise. Yuck!
Pac 12, instead, goes begging to the Big 12 for a life line. Become the Big 20. Hmmm, where have we heard that? Remember when the Big 12 needed a life raft and begged the Pac 12 to become the Pac 20? Remember how we thumbed our noses up at the prospect? My how quickly things change!
Big 12 though isn't in the same position the Pac 12 was at the time, so they either go for the Big 20 or pick and choose Pac 12 schools to add since all of them are secretly speaking to the Big 12 on the downlow. Pac 12 dies by 2025. CU ends up back in the Big 12 as either the full Big 20 or a Big 16 expansion.
Scenario 3 (Big 10 and SEC are done at 16):
In this scenario, Notre Dame yawns and doesn't move anywhere.
Pac 12 is now the Pac 10 again, but a nervous Pac 10 as all the teams are secretly trying to join other conferences. After the initial shock though, they decide it is better to stay together and fight this thing out (for now). Trust amongst members is low though so the league knows it needs to expand to get 'some' excitement going.
Pac 12 bites the bullet and adds 2 members from the MWC.
Pac 12 adds SDSU and UNLV to the league. The presidents can't stomach taking Boise and nobody wants CSU.
League goes back to 12 teams and has a little stability for the time being. The next TV deal will suck but getting Vegas market and locking up San Diego has some consolation.
What scenarios do you guys see? List your scenarios please. Very interested in seeing what you guys have and what you have heard.
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