The latest prediction from the Athletic. It is behind a pay wall so will not paste the whole article:
The 5 options listed with some of the article:
1. A Big Three
Prepare to say bye-bye to the phrase “Power 5.” With the Big Ten and SEC making money hand over fist, the top of Division I is already set for clearer stratification by the end of this decade. If nothing significant in the landscape changes and no major new revenue streams pop up, the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 will continue to battle for No. 3 billing. Whoever emerges from that battle could become the landing spot for every attractive school the SEC and Big Ten pass on. (My note here, I believe this will be the outcome. I disagree it will be one of these conferences itself, but a mixture of the remaining 3).
2. Notre Dame remains independent
Last week The Athletic’s Pete Sampson explored the present and future of Notre Dame’s independence, including the influential role played by the school’s long-running rights deal with NBC (currently on a contract that lasts through 2025). The story cited two sports media consultants who believe that the Irish could land a new deal with NBC that would pay them around $60 million per year once their current contract runs out. New athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who will replace longtime AD Jack Swarbrick early next year, was previously the chairman of NBC Sports. Meanwhile, NBC has joined Fox and CBS on the Big Ten’s new seven-year, $7 billion rights agreement running through 2030; those schools are expected to bring in more than $70 million per year in media rights revenue alone.
3. The Big Ten and SEC become the AFC and NFC
The two richest leagues are already about to become 16-team conferences, now that each has picked off two big brands for 2024. As Florida State athletic director Michael Alford put it to his board of trustees earlier this year, there’s great fear among those in the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 about falling too far behind. “We cannot be $30 million behind every year compared to our peers,” Alford said in February. ( My thoughts, I do not think the networks and streaming services will allow this. Two 20 school conferences only provides up to 20 games once conference play starts. Yes the lower level of college football football will play games, but as we know the American sporting public only real watch what they consider is the top level of a sport is)
4. The appointment of a College Football Czar
Many prominent college football coaches have called for a “czar” who would have the ability to make and change rules unilaterally and run the top level of college football the way the pro leagues operate. It’s a job NCAA leadership is clearly not fulfilling at present. (my thoughts good luck getting conference commishes to do this)
5. FBS-1A and FBS-1B, based on employment status
Almost everyone who works in college sports agrees that the biggest future-facing question is that of athlete compensation. Will players become employees, and, if so, how exactly will that come about? It’s safe to presume that one of several legal dominoes will fall allowing athletes to be paid directly by schools and/or leagues within the next decade. And not every school will want to do that. Fewer still will be able to afford to do it.
The 5 options listed with some of the article:
1. A Big Three
Prepare to say bye-bye to the phrase “Power 5.” With the Big Ten and SEC making money hand over fist, the top of Division I is already set for clearer stratification by the end of this decade. If nothing significant in the landscape changes and no major new revenue streams pop up, the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 will continue to battle for No. 3 billing. Whoever emerges from that battle could become the landing spot for every attractive school the SEC and Big Ten pass on. (My note here, I believe this will be the outcome. I disagree it will be one of these conferences itself, but a mixture of the remaining 3).
2. Notre Dame remains independent
Last week The Athletic’s Pete Sampson explored the present and future of Notre Dame’s independence, including the influential role played by the school’s long-running rights deal with NBC (currently on a contract that lasts through 2025). The story cited two sports media consultants who believe that the Irish could land a new deal with NBC that would pay them around $60 million per year once their current contract runs out. New athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who will replace longtime AD Jack Swarbrick early next year, was previously the chairman of NBC Sports. Meanwhile, NBC has joined Fox and CBS on the Big Ten’s new seven-year, $7 billion rights agreement running through 2030; those schools are expected to bring in more than $70 million per year in media rights revenue alone.
3. The Big Ten and SEC become the AFC and NFC
The two richest leagues are already about to become 16-team conferences, now that each has picked off two big brands for 2024. As Florida State athletic director Michael Alford put it to his board of trustees earlier this year, there’s great fear among those in the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 about falling too far behind. “We cannot be $30 million behind every year compared to our peers,” Alford said in February. ( My thoughts, I do not think the networks and streaming services will allow this. Two 20 school conferences only provides up to 20 games once conference play starts. Yes the lower level of college football football will play games, but as we know the American sporting public only real watch what they consider is the top level of a sport is)
4. The appointment of a College Football Czar
Many prominent college football coaches have called for a “czar” who would have the ability to make and change rules unilaterally and run the top level of college football the way the pro leagues operate. It’s a job NCAA leadership is clearly not fulfilling at present. (my thoughts good luck getting conference commishes to do this)
5. FBS-1A and FBS-1B, based on employment status
Almost everyone who works in college sports agrees that the biggest future-facing question is that of athlete compensation. Will players become employees, and, if so, how exactly will that come about? It’s safe to presume that one of several legal dominoes will fall allowing athletes to be paid directly by schools and/or leagues within the next decade. And not every school will want to do that. Fewer still will be able to afford to do it.
