...and how do you think we will fare in the rest of conference play? Watching the late games last night it struck me that there is a lot of parity in the conference, and we have some very tough games in front of us. I still don't have a sense for just how competitive CU will be honestly. CU has looked very good against some very bad teams. As I mentioned in an earlier post this week will show us more concretely what we have. For some reason after watching last night I feel a little cynical about CU's chances going forward. Maybe Cynical is not the right word. Perhaps slightly more pessimistic is a better choice of words. Here is the rest of the schedule:
ASU - Home
USC - Away
Washington - Away
Oregon State - Home
Arizona - Away
Washington State - Home
Utah - Home
Cal - Away
I think OSU is a win. I think UW is a loss. Those are the only games i feel reasonably certain about. ASU I give a 60% chance of winning mainly because we are home. USC is away and Daniels is improving with every game - 40/60. I think Arizona is improving every week, and we play them away, so 40/60. Washington State is very good, and we are lucky we get them at home. Utah seems a little off this year, but they are still a good team. I would put the chances for a win against WSU and Utah as 50/50, and Cal is looking good as well, and they are featuring a fairly dynamic running QB, and that game is away, so maybe a 50/50 shot.
I think if you look at the spectrum of possibilities, I think CU will be bowl eligible - to not be would mark an epic collapse. If we win the one game we should be expected to (OSU), lose the 40/60 games and split the 50/50 games we would finish with 7 or 8 wins (I would take this and be fairly happy about it). Otoh, I could see CU improving steadily as we get our o-line settled, in which case the 50/50 games become 60/40 and the 40/60 games become a 50/50 proposition, at which point ten wins becomes a possibility, if CU can play at a very high level. The limiting factors are imo, the running game - TM is looking very good, but we don't have a back who can pound the rock inside reliably, and I think that could hurt us down the road; and on defense, I am concerned that the Drew Lewis side of the d-line is going to be an exploitable vulnerability, particularly with running QB's. I am curious what other people's take is.
ASU - Home
USC - Away
Washington - Away
Oregon State - Home
Arizona - Away
Washington State - Home
Utah - Home
Cal - Away
I think OSU is a win. I think UW is a loss. Those are the only games i feel reasonably certain about. ASU I give a 60% chance of winning mainly because we are home. USC is away and Daniels is improving with every game - 40/60. I think Arizona is improving every week, and we play them away, so 40/60. Washington State is very good, and we are lucky we get them at home. Utah seems a little off this year, but they are still a good team. I would put the chances for a win against WSU and Utah as 50/50, and Cal is looking good as well, and they are featuring a fairly dynamic running QB, and that game is away, so maybe a 50/50 shot.
I think if you look at the spectrum of possibilities, I think CU will be bowl eligible - to not be would mark an epic collapse. If we win the one game we should be expected to (OSU), lose the 40/60 games and split the 50/50 games we would finish with 7 or 8 wins (I would take this and be fairly happy about it). Otoh, I could see CU improving steadily as we get our o-line settled, in which case the 50/50 games become 60/40 and the 40/60 games become a 50/50 proposition, at which point ten wins becomes a possibility, if CU can play at a very high level. The limiting factors are imo, the running game - TM is looking very good, but we don't have a back who can pound the rock inside reliably, and I think that could hurt us down the road; and on defense, I am concerned that the Drew Lewis side of the d-line is going to be an exploitable vulnerability, particularly with running QB's. I am curious what other people's take is.
