CU Offense vs. CSU Defense Passing Game:
Winfree vs. Banks (Sr - Rice transfer) - Edge CU
Ento vs. Ajayi (Fr) - Edge CU
Shenault vs. Hawkins (Jr - Last year's starter) - Edge CU
McIntyre vs. Hicks (Jr - Returning starter at safety) - Edge CU
Bounds vs. Tre Thomas (Sr - Starting LB) - Edge CU
I don't know how they will line up, but that's what I have in my head as far as match ups. The Rams are extremely short on CB depth. Their #4 CB is: Dajon Owens. Yes, that's a career 6 tackles in 4 games at his JUCO. Cumber is still recovering from knee issues so to say they don't have a lot of guys to cover WRs is an understatement. Because of that, safety Hicks becomes the 4th CB when they go to 4 wide. You saw how well he covered Ursua and Byrd of Hawaii. When Hicks comes down to play CB, they put Braylin Scott in the game as the extra safety. Scott is better against the run than the pass (10 tackles and caused 1 fumble).
Biggest mismatch is probably Hicks vs. McIntyre but it's almost a pick your poison scenario. I don't think Hawkins can cover Shenault, but we don't know yet until he plays. VJ Banks is CSU's best cover guy but he gives up some size to Winfree who has burned better corners. You then have the interesting match up between Ento and Ajayi. Ajayi looked solid vs. Hawaii, but Hawaii's outside wide outs were not nearly as good as their inside guys. It will be an entire world's difference when he faces Ento. Kabion just needs to school this freshman and let him know what Pac 12 football is all about. 5th year vs. freshman should be an enormous mismatch, but Ajayi is actually pretty good.
Bounds vs. Thomas is an interesting match up. Bounds will be assigned more to block him than beat him on a pass route. That match up will be key to the run game. In the pass game, I am curious to see what we can do there. Thomas is physical but lacks speed. CSU probably feels good about that match up so it's up to Bounds to make them feel different.
This is a win at every match up to me. This seems like a pretty big mismatch no matter how I slice it. CSU's DBs will be war ready which is good for them. CU hasn't played anybody so they will be getting hit really for the first time while CSU's guys are used to getting dirty out there now. It may be closer than we are comfortable with after a quarter, but after the rust is off and our guys are used to the physicalness, things will get real and we will start to impose our will in the passing game.
CSU Offense vs. CU Defense Passing Game:
Slim (Adams) vs. Williams (Jr - Tennessee transfer) - Push
Wigley vs. Jackson (So) - Push
Udoffia vs. Johnson (Sr - Last year's starter) - Edge CSU
Miller/Fisher vs. Fulton/Hall (Jr/Fr) - Edge CU
Fisher/Gamboa vs. Butler*/Hammer/McBride (So/RFr/Fr) - Push
This is going to be the most interesting part of the game really. What can CSU's receivers do against CU.
Butler/Hammer/McBride against our defense is the one I'm most interested in. Butler is a beast but was injured in that Hawaii game and it didn't look good. He might be available vs. CU but it's unknown. At best, he will be slowed which is a big advantage for CU because CSU's TEs have burned us for years. It's always been our Achilles heal. CSU always has good ones too. If Butler can't go, it's a big drop down to Hammer and McBride. Hammer is slow but showed really nice hands. Very deliberate route runner though. It almost looked like he was counting his steps, LOL. I don't think he gets away with that against whoever covers him. I'm guessing Gamboa if it is Hammer or McBride. Didn't see much of McBride but we know he is athletic so we will see what they think we can do. If things get dicey, we may go with Fisher to cover the TE. This is a push as I see it right now.
Slim vs. Williams will be the most anticipated match up of the game. Ram fans believe this guy is a 1st round draft pick. I still think he's a backup at Tennessee. Granted, he crushed it against Hawaii so he can definitely play, but he still catches the ball like a loaf of bread. If Slim gets his hands up and around his hands, he isn't getting nearly as many grabs this game. He needs to cradle it to catch it and there will be too much action around his body to cradle it in. I'm going to call this one a push as well. I'm not sold on Slim but not sold on Williams yet either even after the 200 yards. Hold him to 4 catches for 60 yards and Slim has done his job.
Udoffia vs. Johnson part II. Now, I'll be the first to tell you that part I went CSU's way heavily. I also predicted that a year ago. Udoffia was simply not good when I saw him in practice. This rendition of Udoffia is a lot better. He has a better feel for the game. He has a better feel for the routes. He has much better technique. Johnson though, is still a beast. He's their best offensive player in my opinion. He has good speed (top hurdler in high school), good size, and great technique. He can get you turned around in a second and catches everything thrown to him. I suspect CSU will try to exploit this match up the best they can. I also think Udoffia exerts some form of revenge here as well. I think he gets a nasty pick of KJ that changes the game after KJ goes to the well too often. I'm giving an edge to CSU here though. Their best guy vs. a guy who really struggled last year.
Wigley vs. Jackson. Now this is a match up that will keep us up at night. Jackson is a nightmare match up. He had kind of a disappointing game against Hawaii but still went 5 for 72 yards. He's nearly 6'6" though and 220 pounds. We no doubt are using Arias to simulate Jackson in practice but it's tough to simulate 6'6" and 220. Wigley is our most physical corner. Wigley is strong, can play bump, and plays the ball very well. What Wigley isn't is fast. Thankfully, the 1 thing I did notice about Jackson is that he is not fast at all. He was quicker a year ago. The 20 pounds of weight gain made him more TE than true WR. This is why Wigley is a great match up against him. Dante can also play the ball well enough to keep him out of the big catch column. Still though, he gives up about 5 inches and nearly 20 pounds. I don't know why, but I really like Wigley in this one but I'm sure this is one CSU is targeting majorly. They want to win this match up, but I'm calling it a push. I think Wigley gets some break ups here and frustrates Jackson, but size will prevail at times and Jackson will get his including a touchdown.
Miller/Fisher vs. Fulton/Hall. Nikko Hall surprisingly didn't play against Hawaii. They went with Fulton from Mullen instead (former walk on). Doesn't really matter here. Either match up is an win for CU if Miller is playing them. Miller is so athletic and this isn't as dangerous as 4th year jr. vs. freshman that we saw last year. We can ease Miller into this by matching him up against their 4th guy. Neither guy would play for CU and he sees better every day in practice. If we don't even bother to substitute and let Fisher play them, it's still in CU's favor as senior vs. sophomore/freshman is a big plus for us.
QB vs. QB:
Montez vs. KJ Carta-Samuels - Edge CU
Big props to KJ Carta-Samuels for breaking a CSU record with those 5 touchdowns and 537 yards passing. That really is outstanding in game 1. I remember when Kordell threw for 409 yards and 4 TDs against CSU in his first start. It's a big deal and shows a lot. He did throw it 50 times compared to Kordell's 36, but still it is big. Throwing against anybody for that many yards is huge and his completion percentage was just under 70%. You can't deny the efficiency nor the numbers. That is a big time debut for KJ and put him on everyone's radar.
With all of that hoopla, I did notice a few warts in it all. Many of those throws were against a pitifully worn out Hawaii defense that was never really set nor prepared. CSU went to a hurry up offense and it was plain and evident that Hawaii was not prepared. They were often still looking to the sidelines for the defensive signal while CSU would start the play. It is tough to throw for 537 yards against air and in fact, much of the time, CSU did just that. There was no Hawaii defender to be found. KJ's throws were not always great passes. They were floated high and arching so a receiver could run under it (often with a defender painfully lagging behind). There were no deep safeties for whatever reason or maybe they were but weren't ready to play. Either way, much of the throws were against busted or no coverage at all. He wasn't harassed or under duress.
Most of his big throws were from play action. Hawaii's not ready defense oddly enough did bite on play action... despite the fact that CSU wasn't running the ball nor running it well. Why bite when you WANT them to run? You're up by 30! I just can't imagine CU being sucked into play action. I just can't imagine CU's defense looking to the sideline for the signal while CSU runs play after play. I just can't see CU allowing that many deep balls. I just can't see KJ having that much time to throw either.
I want to see what KJ can do when under duress. When Hawaii blitzed him, he often threw off target including a pick. It's when they laid off, starting looking to the sideline, and bit on terrible play action that they were burned. I imagine CU has noticed this and will dial up pressure most of the game on KJ. He will have to pick his target quickly and he will have to put the ball on the money and not just throw it up for grabs. If he can do that and make a bunch of plays, then so be it.
I see this as advantage Montez though. Steven has seen it all by now. He threw 10 TDs as a freshman and 19 a year ago. He's started 15 games now (vs. 2 for KJ). He has played against much tougher competition. In fact, defensively, this might be his easiest assignment based on what CSU did last week. We know CSU will be much better than that, but of Montez' 15 starts, which team would have had a worse defense? CSU 2017? Probably not. UNC? Yeah, UNC is probably worse. Cal and OSU? I'm thinking probably not. Texas State or whatever that Texas school was? Maybe about the same really. Montez has a big mental advantage here even though KJ is the elder QB. Steven has been in the system longer and will process things quickly. Their stats may actually not look all that different when the game is over, but Steven will be the much more effective QB.
Winfree vs. Banks (Sr - Rice transfer) - Edge CU
Ento vs. Ajayi (Fr) - Edge CU
Shenault vs. Hawkins (Jr - Last year's starter) - Edge CU
McIntyre vs. Hicks (Jr - Returning starter at safety) - Edge CU
Bounds vs. Tre Thomas (Sr - Starting LB) - Edge CU
I don't know how they will line up, but that's what I have in my head as far as match ups. The Rams are extremely short on CB depth. Their #4 CB is: Dajon Owens. Yes, that's a career 6 tackles in 4 games at his JUCO. Cumber is still recovering from knee issues so to say they don't have a lot of guys to cover WRs is an understatement. Because of that, safety Hicks becomes the 4th CB when they go to 4 wide. You saw how well he covered Ursua and Byrd of Hawaii. When Hicks comes down to play CB, they put Braylin Scott in the game as the extra safety. Scott is better against the run than the pass (10 tackles and caused 1 fumble).
Biggest mismatch is probably Hicks vs. McIntyre but it's almost a pick your poison scenario. I don't think Hawkins can cover Shenault, but we don't know yet until he plays. VJ Banks is CSU's best cover guy but he gives up some size to Winfree who has burned better corners. You then have the interesting match up between Ento and Ajayi. Ajayi looked solid vs. Hawaii, but Hawaii's outside wide outs were not nearly as good as their inside guys. It will be an entire world's difference when he faces Ento. Kabion just needs to school this freshman and let him know what Pac 12 football is all about. 5th year vs. freshman should be an enormous mismatch, but Ajayi is actually pretty good.
Bounds vs. Thomas is an interesting match up. Bounds will be assigned more to block him than beat him on a pass route. That match up will be key to the run game. In the pass game, I am curious to see what we can do there. Thomas is physical but lacks speed. CSU probably feels good about that match up so it's up to Bounds to make them feel different.
This is a win at every match up to me. This seems like a pretty big mismatch no matter how I slice it. CSU's DBs will be war ready which is good for them. CU hasn't played anybody so they will be getting hit really for the first time while CSU's guys are used to getting dirty out there now. It may be closer than we are comfortable with after a quarter, but after the rust is off and our guys are used to the physicalness, things will get real and we will start to impose our will in the passing game.
CSU Offense vs. CU Defense Passing Game:
Slim (Adams) vs. Williams (Jr - Tennessee transfer) - Push
Wigley vs. Jackson (So) - Push
Udoffia vs. Johnson (Sr - Last year's starter) - Edge CSU
Miller/Fisher vs. Fulton/Hall (Jr/Fr) - Edge CU
Fisher/Gamboa vs. Butler*/Hammer/McBride (So/RFr/Fr) - Push
This is going to be the most interesting part of the game really. What can CSU's receivers do against CU.
Butler/Hammer/McBride against our defense is the one I'm most interested in. Butler is a beast but was injured in that Hawaii game and it didn't look good. He might be available vs. CU but it's unknown. At best, he will be slowed which is a big advantage for CU because CSU's TEs have burned us for years. It's always been our Achilles heal. CSU always has good ones too. If Butler can't go, it's a big drop down to Hammer and McBride. Hammer is slow but showed really nice hands. Very deliberate route runner though. It almost looked like he was counting his steps, LOL. I don't think he gets away with that against whoever covers him. I'm guessing Gamboa if it is Hammer or McBride. Didn't see much of McBride but we know he is athletic so we will see what they think we can do. If things get dicey, we may go with Fisher to cover the TE. This is a push as I see it right now.
Slim vs. Williams will be the most anticipated match up of the game. Ram fans believe this guy is a 1st round draft pick. I still think he's a backup at Tennessee. Granted, he crushed it against Hawaii so he can definitely play, but he still catches the ball like a loaf of bread. If Slim gets his hands up and around his hands, he isn't getting nearly as many grabs this game. He needs to cradle it to catch it and there will be too much action around his body to cradle it in. I'm going to call this one a push as well. I'm not sold on Slim but not sold on Williams yet either even after the 200 yards. Hold him to 4 catches for 60 yards and Slim has done his job.
Udoffia vs. Johnson part II. Now, I'll be the first to tell you that part I went CSU's way heavily. I also predicted that a year ago. Udoffia was simply not good when I saw him in practice. This rendition of Udoffia is a lot better. He has a better feel for the game. He has a better feel for the routes. He has much better technique. Johnson though, is still a beast. He's their best offensive player in my opinion. He has good speed (top hurdler in high school), good size, and great technique. He can get you turned around in a second and catches everything thrown to him. I suspect CSU will try to exploit this match up the best they can. I also think Udoffia exerts some form of revenge here as well. I think he gets a nasty pick of KJ that changes the game after KJ goes to the well too often. I'm giving an edge to CSU here though. Their best guy vs. a guy who really struggled last year.
Wigley vs. Jackson. Now this is a match up that will keep us up at night. Jackson is a nightmare match up. He had kind of a disappointing game against Hawaii but still went 5 for 72 yards. He's nearly 6'6" though and 220 pounds. We no doubt are using Arias to simulate Jackson in practice but it's tough to simulate 6'6" and 220. Wigley is our most physical corner. Wigley is strong, can play bump, and plays the ball very well. What Wigley isn't is fast. Thankfully, the 1 thing I did notice about Jackson is that he is not fast at all. He was quicker a year ago. The 20 pounds of weight gain made him more TE than true WR. This is why Wigley is a great match up against him. Dante can also play the ball well enough to keep him out of the big catch column. Still though, he gives up about 5 inches and nearly 20 pounds. I don't know why, but I really like Wigley in this one but I'm sure this is one CSU is targeting majorly. They want to win this match up, but I'm calling it a push. I think Wigley gets some break ups here and frustrates Jackson, but size will prevail at times and Jackson will get his including a touchdown.
Miller/Fisher vs. Fulton/Hall. Nikko Hall surprisingly didn't play against Hawaii. They went with Fulton from Mullen instead (former walk on). Doesn't really matter here. Either match up is an win for CU if Miller is playing them. Miller is so athletic and this isn't as dangerous as 4th year jr. vs. freshman that we saw last year. We can ease Miller into this by matching him up against their 4th guy. Neither guy would play for CU and he sees better every day in practice. If we don't even bother to substitute and let Fisher play them, it's still in CU's favor as senior vs. sophomore/freshman is a big plus for us.
QB vs. QB:
Montez vs. KJ Carta-Samuels - Edge CU
Big props to KJ Carta-Samuels for breaking a CSU record with those 5 touchdowns and 537 yards passing. That really is outstanding in game 1. I remember when Kordell threw for 409 yards and 4 TDs against CSU in his first start. It's a big deal and shows a lot. He did throw it 50 times compared to Kordell's 36, but still it is big. Throwing against anybody for that many yards is huge and his completion percentage was just under 70%. You can't deny the efficiency nor the numbers. That is a big time debut for KJ and put him on everyone's radar.
With all of that hoopla, I did notice a few warts in it all. Many of those throws were against a pitifully worn out Hawaii defense that was never really set nor prepared. CSU went to a hurry up offense and it was plain and evident that Hawaii was not prepared. They were often still looking to the sidelines for the defensive signal while CSU would start the play. It is tough to throw for 537 yards against air and in fact, much of the time, CSU did just that. There was no Hawaii defender to be found. KJ's throws were not always great passes. They were floated high and arching so a receiver could run under it (often with a defender painfully lagging behind). There were no deep safeties for whatever reason or maybe they were but weren't ready to play. Either way, much of the throws were against busted or no coverage at all. He wasn't harassed or under duress.
Most of his big throws were from play action. Hawaii's not ready defense oddly enough did bite on play action... despite the fact that CSU wasn't running the ball nor running it well. Why bite when you WANT them to run? You're up by 30! I just can't imagine CU being sucked into play action. I just can't imagine CU's defense looking to the sideline for the signal while CSU runs play after play. I just can't see CU allowing that many deep balls. I just can't see KJ having that much time to throw either.
I want to see what KJ can do when under duress. When Hawaii blitzed him, he often threw off target including a pick. It's when they laid off, starting looking to the sideline, and bit on terrible play action that they were burned. I imagine CU has noticed this and will dial up pressure most of the game on KJ. He will have to pick his target quickly and he will have to put the ball on the money and not just throw it up for grabs. If he can do that and make a bunch of plays, then so be it.
I see this as advantage Montez though. Steven has seen it all by now. He threw 10 TDs as a freshman and 19 a year ago. He's started 15 games now (vs. 2 for KJ). He has played against much tougher competition. In fact, defensively, this might be his easiest assignment based on what CSU did last week. We know CSU will be much better than that, but of Montez' 15 starts, which team would have had a worse defense? CSU 2017? Probably not. UNC? Yeah, UNC is probably worse. Cal and OSU? I'm thinking probably not. Texas State or whatever that Texas school was? Maybe about the same really. Montez has a big mental advantage here even though KJ is the elder QB. Steven has been in the system longer and will process things quickly. Their stats may actually not look all that different when the game is over, but Steven will be the much more effective QB.
