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Bottom line for the Pac-12: Does it choose dollars or exposure?

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While the appeal of its on-field inventory is debatable, the Pac-12’s media rights saga has all the ingredients of a must-see drama: A distressed league fighting for survival, Big Tech companies potentially reconfiguring a fragmented viewing paradigm and an inexperienced commissioner whose legacy largely hinges on securing a palatable deal.

Amid breathless speculation, an empty Pac-12 statement of unity and an interestingly timed story about another supposedly intrigued Big Tech partner, interviews with five prominent TV industry sources paint the picture of a weakened conference facing a pivotal decision: Maximize dollars or exposure?

“It’s a very interesting decision for them – they probably can’t do both,” Neal Pilson, the former president of CBS Sports, told On3 on Wednesday.

Debate has stirred for years over when deep-pocketed Big Tech titans would encroach on live sports media rights. That time is now. Amazon is building an ever-growing portfolio that includes spending $1 billion annually for the NFL’s Thursday night package and securing deals to showcase the WNBA, New York Yankees, Overtime Elite, the UEFA Champions League and more. And it may try to get a slice of the NBA when the league’s deal with ESPN/Turner Sports ends after the 2024-25 season. As one longtime TV source said, “I see Amazon specifically coming in for live sports. It is more than dabbling.” Apple TV+, meantime, has secured a 10-year, $2.5 billion deal for Major League Soccer games and is spending $85 million annually for Friday night MLB games.

But what the tech giants possess in dollars they lack in exposure – at least at this point. Yes, the landscape-shifting cord-cutting trend is continuing. Total pay TV subscriptions – cable and satellite – dropped by 6.3 percent in Q3 last year, showed data from research firm MoffettNathanson. More than 34 million homes exist entirely outside the cable network ecosystem; pay TV penetration is now roughly just 61 percent. And, yes, there are now more than 200 million Amazon Prime Video subscribers, including more than 150 million in the U.S. Apple TV+ has a much smaller market share (7 percent) and, as of last year, was estimated to have some 25 million paid subscribers
 
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