I know it's not easy to take off the Buff sunglasses and take an honest look at an upcoming opponent and how they match up with CU, but I've spent some time with the Hawaii depth chart and looking into their team last year, last spring and so far this fall and tried to take a very honest approach to this game, and the conclusion I keep coming to is that we overmatch the Rainbow Warriors in every category I can think of, except home field advantage. Of course home field advantage in this case is significantly more important than for any other game we play this year, so that's no small thing. In fact, I think if this game were played in Boulder most people would probably expect a pretty easy CU win. That said, as Rraalph keeps pointing out, Hawaii's home record against P5 teams in recent years is pretty bad, with only the one win over an Embree coached CU team to show for their efforts. But this is not an Embree coached team and I believe this should be an easy win for CU regardless of location. Here's why....
Let's start with QB, which rightly or wrongly is where most people put the focus for wins and losses for most teams. CU comes into this game with a veteran QB who last year set numerous records at QB as a TRUE SOPHOMORE in his first full year as a starter. Certainly there are those who are not enamored with Sefo, but out of the hundreds of snaps he took last year, if you take away maybe ten truly egregious plays, you have to admit that he had a hell of a season and showed he can be a very good Pac 12 QB, maybe even better than very good. Max Wittek, on the other hand, is a question mark at this point. He came out of high school with a lot of talent, but so far going into his 5th year in college, he does not have a significant body of work in actual games to show for the last four years. Where Sefo spent last year going live against Pac 12 defenses, Wittek spent the year running a scout team against Hawaii's defense. Will he be ready for the kind of secondary the Buffs throw against him Thursday? By the same token, after a year of seeing the speed of Pac 12 defenses, will Hawaii really pose any threat to Sefo?
Advantage QB to QB: Colorado
Advantage QB vs CU Defense: Colorado
Advantage QB vs HI Defense: Colorado
At RB, the simple truth of the matter is that I'm hard pressed to imagine any RB at Hawaii being able to even see the field at CU. This is the deepest and most talented corps of RB's at CU in a long time, and our third string RB is seen by many on this board as our best all around RB. And that's not even taking into account our two freshmen. Hawaii has two, perhaps three, decent RB's, but none of them have really shown anything that should put any fear in our defense after facing a Pac 12 schedule last year, and I just don't see these RB's causing us any problem.
Advantage RB to RB: Colorado
Advantage RB vs CU defense: Colorado
Advantage RB vs HI defense: Colorado
Most people, it seems, view WR as the strength of the Hawaii offense, with both solid starters and good depth. I think an honest appraisal of both teams WR corps would be that they are full of question marks that could be answered in a very positive way for either team, except for two things---Nelson Spruce and Shay Fields. Let's face it, Hawaii has no one like Spruce, and Fields showed last year that he's a big time P5 receiver. I don't see Hawaii having any WR's like these two, and more to the point, I really can't see Hawaii's DB's staying with these two at all. We'll see plenty of teams this year with the kind of talent that can stay with the best WR's in the country. Hawaii is NOT one of those teams. Conversely, Hawaii's WR's have not seen the kind of talent that CU will put up against them in our secondary, and all healthy going into the game (knock on wood).
Advantage WR to WR: Colorado
Advantage WR vs CU defense: Colorado
Advantage WR vs HI defense: Colorado
The TE position, interestingly enough, is viewed by most as the weak spot of both offenses. Most followers of Hawaii football seem to think they will not utilize the TE significantly. It's also a big question mark for CU as well, but I honestly believe that Sean Irwin is going to have a break out season and show that he is a well rounded TE in the Pac 12. Beyond him it's all question marks, but he gives us a narrow advantage at this position.
Advantage TE to TE: Colorado
Advantage TE vs CU defense: Colorado
Advantage TE vs HI defense: Colorado
They say that games are won and lost up front and if that's the case CU should be in a good position this year, with a big, veteran offensive line. The Buffs will play five guys up front this year who are all in their third year or better in the program, and every one legitimately at the 300 pound level or beyond, and with mobility. It remains to be seen how well the new guards play, but CU has returning starters at the critical tackles and center positions, and all three of them have very bright futures. Hawaii, by contrast, and ironically, looks as though they will start two kids from Chatfield High School in Littleton, Ben Clarke and Brendan Urban, who did not get offers from CU. To be brutally honest, I don't see anyone on Hawaii's offensive line who could make the two deep at CU, except perhaps at RT, where our current back ups are both pretty new to the position. Hawaii's offensive linemen are not big (average of 6'3, 285) and they are not overly talented. That's not Buff colored glasses. That's just reality. The only reason this is a question mark to me is that I still have concerns about our defensive tackles, but aside from that I think this is a huge advantage to CU.
Advantage OL to OL: Colorado
Advantage OL vs CU defense: Even
Advantage OL vs HI defense: Colorado
Hawaii has a new OC this year in Don Bailey, who comes in after running one of the most potent offenses in the FCS at Idaho State the last couple years. He's certainly an upgrade over what Hawaii has had the last couple years and it appears that Norm Chow will finally give up calling his own plays from the sidelines. But Bailey is still a question mark, coming from the FCS level. CU, by contrast, has an OC going into his third year in the program, with two years going against Pac 12 talent, and a lot of success last year to show for it. I'm taking Lindgren over Bailey until Bailey proves something at this level. Ah yes, you may say, but we also have a first year DC matching up against Bailey. True, but the difference is our DC has a body of work at this level, and at the NFL, to show for his career, and it's a damned impressive body of work at that. Again, I'm taking Leavitt over Bailey and by a good margin.
Advantage OC vs OC: Colorado
Advantage HI OC vs CU DC: Colorado
So that's a look at the offense. There won't be a lot of weeks that CU has a clear and decided advantage the way it does this week. In reality it may only happen three or four times this year, and all in the first four weeks of the season. But can anyone really argue that it's not true against Hawaii? We'll know by Friday morning.
In the meantime, what do YOU think?
Let's start with QB, which rightly or wrongly is where most people put the focus for wins and losses for most teams. CU comes into this game with a veteran QB who last year set numerous records at QB as a TRUE SOPHOMORE in his first full year as a starter. Certainly there are those who are not enamored with Sefo, but out of the hundreds of snaps he took last year, if you take away maybe ten truly egregious plays, you have to admit that he had a hell of a season and showed he can be a very good Pac 12 QB, maybe even better than very good. Max Wittek, on the other hand, is a question mark at this point. He came out of high school with a lot of talent, but so far going into his 5th year in college, he does not have a significant body of work in actual games to show for the last four years. Where Sefo spent last year going live against Pac 12 defenses, Wittek spent the year running a scout team against Hawaii's defense. Will he be ready for the kind of secondary the Buffs throw against him Thursday? By the same token, after a year of seeing the speed of Pac 12 defenses, will Hawaii really pose any threat to Sefo?
Advantage QB to QB: Colorado
Advantage QB vs CU Defense: Colorado
Advantage QB vs HI Defense: Colorado
At RB, the simple truth of the matter is that I'm hard pressed to imagine any RB at Hawaii being able to even see the field at CU. This is the deepest and most talented corps of RB's at CU in a long time, and our third string RB is seen by many on this board as our best all around RB. And that's not even taking into account our two freshmen. Hawaii has two, perhaps three, decent RB's, but none of them have really shown anything that should put any fear in our defense after facing a Pac 12 schedule last year, and I just don't see these RB's causing us any problem.
Advantage RB to RB: Colorado
Advantage RB vs CU defense: Colorado
Advantage RB vs HI defense: Colorado
Most people, it seems, view WR as the strength of the Hawaii offense, with both solid starters and good depth. I think an honest appraisal of both teams WR corps would be that they are full of question marks that could be answered in a very positive way for either team, except for two things---Nelson Spruce and Shay Fields. Let's face it, Hawaii has no one like Spruce, and Fields showed last year that he's a big time P5 receiver. I don't see Hawaii having any WR's like these two, and more to the point, I really can't see Hawaii's DB's staying with these two at all. We'll see plenty of teams this year with the kind of talent that can stay with the best WR's in the country. Hawaii is NOT one of those teams. Conversely, Hawaii's WR's have not seen the kind of talent that CU will put up against them in our secondary, and all healthy going into the game (knock on wood).
Advantage WR to WR: Colorado
Advantage WR vs CU defense: Colorado
Advantage WR vs HI defense: Colorado
The TE position, interestingly enough, is viewed by most as the weak spot of both offenses. Most followers of Hawaii football seem to think they will not utilize the TE significantly. It's also a big question mark for CU as well, but I honestly believe that Sean Irwin is going to have a break out season and show that he is a well rounded TE in the Pac 12. Beyond him it's all question marks, but he gives us a narrow advantage at this position.
Advantage TE to TE: Colorado
Advantage TE vs CU defense: Colorado
Advantage TE vs HI defense: Colorado
They say that games are won and lost up front and if that's the case CU should be in a good position this year, with a big, veteran offensive line. The Buffs will play five guys up front this year who are all in their third year or better in the program, and every one legitimately at the 300 pound level or beyond, and with mobility. It remains to be seen how well the new guards play, but CU has returning starters at the critical tackles and center positions, and all three of them have very bright futures. Hawaii, by contrast, and ironically, looks as though they will start two kids from Chatfield High School in Littleton, Ben Clarke and Brendan Urban, who did not get offers from CU. To be brutally honest, I don't see anyone on Hawaii's offensive line who could make the two deep at CU, except perhaps at RT, where our current back ups are both pretty new to the position. Hawaii's offensive linemen are not big (average of 6'3, 285) and they are not overly talented. That's not Buff colored glasses. That's just reality. The only reason this is a question mark to me is that I still have concerns about our defensive tackles, but aside from that I think this is a huge advantage to CU.
Advantage OL to OL: Colorado
Advantage OL vs CU defense: Even
Advantage OL vs HI defense: Colorado
Hawaii has a new OC this year in Don Bailey, who comes in after running one of the most potent offenses in the FCS at Idaho State the last couple years. He's certainly an upgrade over what Hawaii has had the last couple years and it appears that Norm Chow will finally give up calling his own plays from the sidelines. But Bailey is still a question mark, coming from the FCS level. CU, by contrast, has an OC going into his third year in the program, with two years going against Pac 12 talent, and a lot of success last year to show for it. I'm taking Lindgren over Bailey until Bailey proves something at this level. Ah yes, you may say, but we also have a first year DC matching up against Bailey. True, but the difference is our DC has a body of work at this level, and at the NFL, to show for his career, and it's a damned impressive body of work at that. Again, I'm taking Leavitt over Bailey and by a good margin.
Advantage OC vs OC: Colorado
Advantage HI OC vs CU DC: Colorado
So that's a look at the offense. There won't be a lot of weeks that CU has a clear and decided advantage the way it does this week. In reality it may only happen three or four times this year, and all in the first four weeks of the season. But can anyone really argue that it's not true against Hawaii? We'll know by Friday morning.
In the meantime, what do YOU think?
