NIL and heavy portal movement are in transisiton, likely to look much different in the near future. But where we stand now, there are some aspects of their impact that haven't been discussed much. Here are three, ones where I'm not clear what the NIL/portal impact has been and might go:
Participation Levels in Football
A number of studies have shown a steady decline in the number of high school boys participating in football. While a few states (Alabama, Mississippi, Texas) have shown increased player participation, most have shown steady declines, and in some cases (California, Michigan, North Carolina, Illinois) they have been steep. The question I have is whether the opportunity for NIL cash rewards, and the publicity about NIL (and potentially collective bargaining paydays in the future) will encourage higher levels of high school football participation. For struggling families, or kids who see the gold chains and bling available for 18-year-old college students, football could be seen as a quick means to that end.
Portal impact on GPI levels and Team APR Scores
I'm unclear on how athlete GPI levels and team APR scores are impacted by heavy portal use. The NCAA still has sanctions in place for schools with low APR scores, and it's unclear to me how those rates are calculated with players bouncing around from school to school. The most recent football APR rates I could find were from 2022-23, with CU having a score of 960, 90th nationally and 14th in the Big-12. I wonder how APR levels will fit with the the emerging pay-for-play transfer pattern.
Portal and NIL Impact on Team Cohesion
This is an area I've wondered about. It used to be that football team character would change when the head coach changed, but otherwise, was pretty considtent. A number of very successful college coaches built their success by having a solid, consistent team culture, with shared value systems and year-to-year continuity. Dabo Sweeney, Kyle Whittingham, Nick Saban, Dave Clauson, Pat Narduzzi, and Matt Campbell are coaches who fit this mold. However, high levels of player changover through the portal must take a toll on this team personality, along with the sudden emergence of some players being flush with money, and all that goes with it. Some coaches like Sweeney have attempted to avoid the portal, but in doing so, may be at a disadvantage talent-wise. It seems that the fundamental character of college football teams is changing with NIL and the portal.
